Research Seminar of International Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis and Laboratory for Macro-Structural Modeling of the Russian Economy: Alexander D. Smirnov «Cyclical Dynamics of Macrofinancial System»
Dear Colleagues,
International Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis and Laboratory for Macro-Structural Modeling of the Russian Economy invite everyone to join our research seminar on Thursday, October 17th, 2024 at 16:00 PM (Moscow).
Speaker: Alexander D. Smirnov, NRU HSE
Theme: Cyclical Dynamics of Macrofinancial System
Resume:
The economic content of previous communications (April, June of this year) was summarized and generalized.
It was shown following the methodology of J. Tobin, the identity of the long-term macrofinancial dynamics to the "financial intermediation" transforming "outside assets" into "inside assets". The core of economic financialization was formed by the debt and money interaction (interference), which had been first noted by I. Fisher (1933). The cyclicality of their dynamics was expressed in debt accumulation and repayment, and in subsequent money conversion into resources and new debts.
The second-order ODE of debt dynamics gave rise to the model of a driven damped oscillator. Rotation and oscillations of money and debt indices were obvious under the macrofinancial system approximation by a Fourier series. The system’s driver analytical decomposition modeled debt dynamics as a process of money creation by the banking system. Convolving "instantaneous" impulse and the system’s driver reveal causal links between money and debts, which allowed for the solution of the system’s ODE. It’s worth to mention that the model reproduced the global debt reaction to the monetary shock during the Covid19 pandemic.
Revealing the core role of money and debt in economic turnover the macrofinancial oscillator model might be helpful in implementing monetary and macroprudential policy at the current phase of financialization of the economy.
Working language: Russian
Working regime: mixed, in person and online
Address: Pokrovsky Boulevard, 11, room T510
Link: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88231594796
Looking forward to see you.