About the laboratory
International Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis (ILMA) was started in 2006. Since 2018 it has been led by Hubert Kempf (ENS Paris-Saclay). ILMA brings together early career research fellows from the Faculty of Economic Sciences with a broad research agenda in macroeconomic theory and empirics. We are open to international collaboration and welcome students with experience in macroeconomic research for assistantships. Our research in progress covers modern problems in public finance, informational aspects of monetary policy, macroeconometric forecasting, and political economy of growth and development.
Sustainable public finance
Recently, many developing and developed countries have faced challenges of chronic budget deficits, unbalanced social security plans and unsustainable public debt dynamics. We study the optimal design of pension systems under current demographic trends, the nature of sovereign defaults in developing countries and reasons and consequences of financial repression in the from of non-market public debt placement with the below market rate of return.
Information and macroeconomic policy
In the aftermath of 2007-2009 global financial crisis central banks around the world have turned to unconventional monetary policy instruments, including informational signals under the forward guidance. This policy experiment proves to be no less efficient than conventional monetary policy. We study the impact of information policy on financial markets and macroeconomic dynamics with the special focus on the design of this policy.
Problems in empirical macroeconomics and macroeconomic forecasting
Accurateforecasts are the basis for planning macroeconomic policy. The variety of modern forecasting tools does not allow to rely solely on a specific technique irrespective of variables under question, forecasting horizon and data availability. We study relative accuracy of various forecasting methods. Another strand of our research is the use of meta-analysis in macroeconomics (consumption theory, labor markets, etc).
Political economy of growth and development
Cross-country differences in current standards of living and long-run economic growth can be explained by such fundamentals as institutions, culture, geography and history. Modern economics study the formation of institutes and their influence on economic development. In particular, we focus on the impact of inequality on long-run growth, the reasons behind stagnation in autocracies and democracies, political economy of high-skilled labor force migration.
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