We show that three factors combine to explain the mean magnitude of excess sensitivity reported in studies estimating the consumption response to income changes: the use of macro data, publication bias, and liquidity constraints. When micro data are used, publication bias is corrected for, and households under examination have substantial liquidity, the literature implies little evidence of deviations from consumption smoothing. The result holds when we control for 45 additional variables reflecting the methods employed by researchers and use Bayesian model averaging to account for model uncertainty. The estimates produced by this literature are also systematically affected by the size of the change in income and the chosen measure of consumption.
The relative merits in a monetary union of a fiscal federalism scheme and intergovernmental fiscal cooperation without a federal authority are assessed using a standard macroeconomic model commonly used for policy analysis. We show that it is impossible to conclude that one solution is always preferable to the other. The benefits from an extra instrument and a policymaker with union-wide objectives may not compensate the adding of a non-cooperative player to the policy game. This result is sustained when an active monetary policy is introduced in the model or when shocks affect the functioning of the economy. The welfare ranking of these two options depends on the cross-border spillover effects, the objectives of policymakers and the variances of shocks.
We develop a stock-flow-consistent microsimulation model that comprises all relevant mechanisms of money creation and parametrize it to fit actual data. The model is used to make out-of-sample projections of broad money and credit developments under the commencement/termination of foreign reserve accumulation by the Bank of Russia. We use direct forecasts from the microsimulation model as well as the two-step approach, which implies the use of artificial data to pre-train the Bayesian vector autoregression model. We conclude that the suggested approach is competitive in forecasting and yields promising results.
Central banks have recently become aware of the economic and financial risks associated with uncontrolled global warming and have begun to mobilize. But until now, monetary policy, which is at the heart of their missions, has not been integrated into the fight against global warming. The purpose of this article is to show that it is possible to green monetary policy without jeopardizing a central bank's primary mission, macroeconomic stabilization and inflation control. The operational framework within which monetary policy is conducted can be modified to encourage commercial banks to adjust their crediting policies according to the associated CO2 emissions. Two options are presented. One involves adding a climate premium to the bank's specific key interest rate and climate rating for its credits, the other involves differentiating the treatment of counterparties to the liquidity offered by the central bank according to the associated CO2 emissions. The implementation of these measures is discussed, in particular their compatibility with the macroeconomic stabilisation objectives of monetary policy.
When jobs offered by different employers are not perfect substitutes, employers gain wage-setting power; the extent of this power can be captured by the elasticity of labor supply to the firm. The authors collect 1,320 estimates of this parameter from 53 studies. Findings show a prominent discrepancy between estimates of direct elasticity of labor supply to changes in wage (smaller) and the estimates converted from inverse elasticities (larger), suggesting that labor market institutions may reign in a substantial amount of firm wage-setting power. This gap remains after they control for 22 additional variables and use Bayesian Model Averaging and LASSO to address model uncertainty; however, it is less pronounced for studies employing an identification strategy. Furthermore, the authors find strong evidence that implies the literature on direct estimates is prone to selective reporting: Negative estimates of the elasticity of labor supply to the firm tend to be discarded, leading to upward bias in the mean reported estimate. Additionally, they point out several socioeconomic factors that seem to affect the degree of monopsony power.
We study the efficiency of banking regulation under financial integration. Banks freely choose the jurisdiction where to locate their activities and have private information about their efficiency level. Regulators non-cooperatively offer any regulatory contract that satisfies information and participation constraints of banks. We show that the unique Nash equilibrium of the regulatory game is a simple pooling contract: financial integration is characterized by the inability for regulators to discriminate between banks with different efficiency levels. This result is driven by the endogenous restriction caused by regulatory arbitrage on the capacity of regulators to use several regulatory instruments.
The paper proposes a bootstrap methodology for estimating cost efficiency in data envelopment analysis. We consider the conventional concept of Fare, Grosskopf and Lovellcost efficiency, for which our algorithm re-samples “naive” input-oriented efficiency scores, rescales original inputs to bring them to the frontier, and then re-estimates cost efficiency scores for the rescaled inputs. Next, we examine Tone cost efficiency, where input prices vary across producers. Here we show that the direct modification on bootstrap algorithms by Simar and Wilson are applicable. We consider cases both with the absence and presence of environmental variables (i.e. input variables not directly controlled by firms). The bootstrap methodology exploits these assumptions: 1) the sample are i.i.d. random variables with the continuous joint probability density function with support over production set; 2) the frontier is smooth; and 3) the probability of observing firms on the frontier approaches unity with an increase in sample. The results of simulations for a multi-input, multi-output Cobb–Douglas production function with correlated outputs, and correlated technical and cost efficiency, show consistency of our proposed algorithm, even for small samples. Finally, we offer real data estimates for the Japanese banking industry in 2013. Our package “rDEA,” developed in the R language, is available from the GitHub and CRAN repository.
Based on quarterly data on 31 emerging countries (among which 16 are inflation targeting countries) from 1990Q1 to 2014Q3, we obtain a strong support for the conjecture that the implementation of inflation targeting weakens the Fisherian relation between expected depreciation and the interest rate differential (uncovered interest parity condition) and thus is conducive to the appearance of the forward bias puzzle in emerging countries. We show that this reflects the performance of inflation targeting regimes in lowering the level and volatility of inflation. Our finding holds when controlling for countryspecific effects, time-specific effects, global disinflation, exchange rate management, crises, and using different econometric techniques.
This note discusses two errors in the approach proposed in Canay (2011) for constructing a computationally simple two-step estimator in a quantile regression model with quantile-independent fixed effects. Firstly, we show that Canay’s assumption about n/Ts → 0 for some s > 1 is not strong enough and can entail severe bias or even the non-existence of the limiting distribution for the estimator of the vector of coefficients. The condition n/T → 0 appears to be closer to the required set of restrictions. These problems are likely to cause incorrect inference in applied papers with large n/T, but the impact is less in applications with small n/T. In an attempt to improve Canay’s estimator, we propose a simple correction that may reduce the bias. The second error concerns the incorrect asymptotic standard error of the estimator of the constant term. We show that, contrary to Canay’s assumption, the within estimator has an influence function that is not i.i.d. and this affects inference. Moreover, the constant term is unlikely to be estimable at rate nT−−−√nT, so a different estimator may not be available. However, the issue concerning the constant term does not have an effect on slope coefficients. Finally, we give recommendations to practitioners and conduct a meta-review of applied papers that use Canay’s estimator.
In this paper, we propose a two-sector endogenous growth model of transition from the period of pre-industrial stagnation to a sustainable growth regime. In the model the slight structural changes in the Malthusian world influence a proportion of power distribution between landowners and capitalists, and finally lead to the adoption of institutions, favoring industrial development. These changes trigger the non-drastic transition to the modern growth regime. The model can explain the dynamic and the intensity of conflict between landowners and capital holders during the transition process.
This study is dedicated to estimating the impact of currency risk on the cost of equity in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. Our contribution to the literature is that we have obtained evidence on the pricing of exchange rate risk in developing countries, which at the time of writing is quite scarce. This scarcity is one motivation for our research, which is dedicated to BRICS capital markets, though with the Chinese stock market excluded since it is heavily regulated. The aim of this research is to determine whether in emerging countries stock markets currency risk is a significant factor that influences the cost of equity capital in a company. Changes in the value of exchange rates can impact the cash flows of a firm and its exposure to risk, and hence, the value of the company. In our research we will discuss the influence of exchange rate movements on the value of firms through their impact on the cost of equity. Specifically, we investigate whether companies that report substantial currency gains or losses have to pay a higher required rate of return on equity. Furthermore, in this study we make an attempt to estimate currency risk premia for exposure to appreciation and depreciation of currency separately, and try to identify possible differences. For each country, three analytical models that extend the Fama-French Three Factor Model (by incorporating currency risk) are estimated. We use an equal-weighted portfolio approach to identify currency risk factors. These factors are estimated either by using information about the ratio of currency gains to sales, or the magnitude of covariation between equity returns and exchange rate changes. In the second case appreciation and depreciation of domestic currency against the US dollar is considered separately. The results indicate that in Russia, firms which report substantial currency losses pay a positive risk premium, while in Brazil, India and South Africa companies with significantly positive or negative currency gains pay a lower required return on equity than firms with almost zero currency gains. Finally, we attempt to explain the estimation results using a sectoral breakdown of product exports for each country of the data sample.
This paper is devoted to the analysis of the Bank of Russia verbal interventions from 2014 to 2017 and relationship between verbal interventions and interest rates in Russian economy. As verbal interventions of the regulator, all statements made by officials of the Bank of Russia were examined, as well as statements by the press service and published results of the Bank of Russia departments. As interest rates in the economy of the Russian Federation, values of the zero-coupon yield curve of the Moscow Exchange were taken into account. The study showed that for measuring the relationship between the structure of interest rates in the economy, other macroeconomic indicators and verbal interventions, it is necessary to take into account the instability of model parameters and use models for particular time segments. Using tools, new to the scientific literature on this topic, we obtained optimal time segments to improve the quality of data presentation. The estimations of various models with inclusion of the ARCH and GARCH components showed that the Bank of Russia information policy had a significant impact on short, medium and long interest rates. At the same time, the relationship between the statements of the Bank of Russia representatives and interest rates depends both on the subject and on the tone of the statements. This work complements existing literature on information policy by studying the influence of the communication not only on the current economic dynamics, but also on the long-term expectations of agents. In addition, the paper discusses the problems of the effectiveness of the Bank of Russia information policy and considers a number of proposals to improve its efficiency.
Stability of inflation expectations is a necessary part of inflation targeting. Among many factors that may affect the dynamics of inflation expectations, one of the most important is the communication policy of the central bank and representatives of the government. This paper measures the effectiveness of verbal interventions by the Government and the Bank of Russia on the high-frequency indicator of inflation expectations from the stock market for the period July 2015 – December 2016. Dummy variables are used to characterize verbal interventions in terms of the degree of regularity, the source and the information contained. One of the main features of this paper is the analysis of the verbal interventions from individual representatives of monetary and fiscal policies. By the assessment of the model of conditional heteroscedasticity, we conclude that verbal interventions by the Bank of Russia and members of the Government of the Russian Federation accompanied by decrease of inflation expectations: key verbal interventions were statements about state budget deficit and future inflation. The results obtained can be used to develop the communication policy tools in future.