Research Seminar of International Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis: Irina Kozlovtseva «Macroprudential Policy Efficiency: Assessment for the Uncollateralized Consumer Loans in Russia»

Dear Colleagues,

International Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis invite everyone to join our research seminar on the 03rd of  December 2020 (Thursday) at 16:00.

Speaker: Irina Kozlovtseva, Bank of Russia

Title: Macroprudential Policy Efficiency: Assessment for the Uncollateralized Consumer Loans in Russia

Abstract:

We use the Russian banks' 2015-2019 data to evaluate the effectiveness of the macroprudential measures in curbing the booming consumer lending segment. We find that the measures are successful in reducing the overall loan portfolio riskiness and in capital cushion accumulation by banks. In the short-run of up to 1-2 quarters after the measure announcement date banks tend to reduce both the new loan volumes and the average consumer loan portfolio growth rate. Such reduction is more typical with the smallest market players. However, in the longer time horizon up to a year from the measure application date we observe the increase in the average credit growth rates. Such findings correspond to the experience of the emerging markets of Argentine, Colombia, Thailand. In general, we consider that the observed credit growth after the measure implementation is smaller than it could have been without the measures in place. We also expect that the observed lending growth rate brings less financial instability risks and it reflects the potential for the natural loan extension in Russia.

Location: Online in Zoom

Link: https://zoom.us/j/91611493542?pwd=Z1pTZmZmMThPaG9JOU1HbjY5d3JtQT09 

ID: 916 1149 3542
Password: 555493

Working language: English, Russian. 

Looking forward to see you.