Research Seminar of International Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis: Alexander D. Smirnov "Safe Debt and Risks of Default in the Logistic Model of Global Leverage"

Dear Colleagues,

 International Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis invite everyone to join our research seminar on the 5th of  December 2019 (Thursday) at 16:40.

Speaker: Alexander D. Smirnov(Professor, Dr of Economic Sciences, HSE)

Title:  SAFE DEBT AND RISKS OF DEFAULT IN THE LOGISTIC MODEL OF GLOBAL LEVERAGE.

Venue: Pokrovsky Boulevard 11, room T510

Abstract:

The global financial system is overloaded with debt the full reimbursement of which, meaning debt-deflation, is a highly undesirable process. Nonetheless, the total debt monetization can be avoided under some conditions, and in the logistic leverage model these conditions appear to be identical to the safe prolongation of various debt obligations. Very mild economic assumptions were needed to model empirical processes of global deleveraging by logistic ODE and SDE. Solving the appropriate Kolmogorov-Fokker-Plank equation provided stationary probability density function of the gamma distribution which moments inform about the long-term anchor leverage, intensity of deleveraging and risks of default. Simulation of the global leverage dynamic indicated either a tendency towards financial collapse, or ideated the safe global debt restructuring and rolling over. Different regimes of the debt, money and capital accumulation were distinguished by simple criteria and tested against empirical data.

If you need to order a pass to the building, please, contact Tatyana Bushina ( tbushina@hse.ru )

Looking forward to see you.