Research Seminar of International Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis and Laboratory for Macro-Structural Modeling of the Russian Economy: Alexander D. Smirnov «Cyclical dynamics of the macrofinancial market of debt and money»

Dear Colleagues,

International Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis and Laboratory for Macro-Structural Modeling of the Russian Economy invite everyone to join our research seminar on Thursday, April 4th, 2024 at 16:20 PM (Moscow).

Speaker: Alexander D. Smirnov, NRU HSE

Theme: Cyclical dynamics of the macrofinancial market of debt and money

Resume:

The behavior of major money and debt markets has been dramatically changed due to the huge and practically limitless emissions of money ex nihilo that are admissable at the present stage of global financialization. The effective implementation of monetary and macroprudential policies, especially after the Covid19 crisis, requires evidently much deeper understanding the nature of these processes. The global debt and money markets behavior was studied using the model of harmonic oscillator with forced and damped oscillations.     

The macro-debt dynamics was modelled by a second-order ordinary differential equation explaining actions of collective creditors thriving to compensate their expected losses which could be caused by the growing debt dilution of value. Fluctuations of money and debt indicators observed in the solution of this fundamental ODE were exposed in the phasor rotations on the plane of complex numbers. Oscillations and rotation of the money/debt market indicators, via changes in the amplitude and phase of the system’s state vector, demonstrate various characteristics of a macro-financial cycle including the critical phenomenon of resonance, that is, financial crisis. Simulations on the harmonic oscillator model illustrated different numerical aspects of the complex and persistent interference of money and macrodebt tranches, and it seems that much deeper  knowledge of the borrowing/repayment cycles is in need for reducing costs of stabilizing macrofinancial processes.

Working language: Russian

Working regime: mixed, in person and online

Address: Pokrovsky Boulevard, 11, room T510

Link: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/85411229012 

ID: 854 1122 9012

Looking forward to see you.