Research Seminar of International Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis: Smirnov A.D. «Macrofinance: sigmoidal dynamics of money, debt and wealth»
Dear Colleagues,
International Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis invites everyone to join our research seminar on the 15th of June 2023 (Thursday) at 04:00 PM (Moscow).
Speaker: Professor Smirnov A.D. (HSE)
Theme: «Macrofinance: sigmoidal dynamics of money, debt and wealth»
Abstract:
Proposed the compact model of an integrated macro-financial system represented by money, debt and wealth dynamics. Macrofinancial assets, liabilities and real wealth as well as liquidity circulation interconnected processes of wealth and macrodebt accumulation. The volume of financial contracts was measured by the system characteristic time while the wealth grew in calendar time. Dynamics of macrofinancial indicators were modeled by logistic ordinary differential equations which solutions formed three-dimensional surfaces of corresponding indices.
The model was parametrized on empirical data and illustrated with numerical examples. It demonstrated, in particular, that finance multiplied the magnitude of social wealth thus increasing the efficiency of money transformation into productive capital. Excess liquidity on the financial segment of the money market appeared to be compatible with its deficit on the real segment, and vice versa. The general and financial wealth indices intersections corresponded to the money "neutrality" occured at the zero growth in real resources. Various combinations of interest rates and money emission ratios could result in the system deviations from a balanced trajectory thus generating critical phenomena similar to resonance. The negative consequences of financialization produced a “hump” on the surface of the real long-term liabilities.
Working language: Russian
Link: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/82148785373?pwd=NlB2OTdpaHhCZGU3d296WnJPeDdmdz09
ID: 821 4878 5373
Passport: 890441
Looking forward to see you.